Why It's So Hard to Get Into a Marathon Right Now
If your rejection emails are piling up, it is not bad luck. Getting into a big-city marathon is mathematically harder than it has ever been. The TCS London Marathon drew a record 1,338,544 ballot applications for 2027, up 131% in three years. New York's 2026 lottery accepted about 1% of applicants, the lowest rate in the race's history.
How much has marathon demand grown?
London is the cleanest series because it publishes exact counts: 578,374 applications for 2024, 840,318 for 2025, 1,133,813 for 2026, and 1,338,544 for 2027. That is +45%, +35%, and +18% year on year, and every one of those totals set a world record.
The pattern holds across the Majors. Chicago went from 123,000 applicants to about 200,000 in two years, up 63%. New York went from 165,000 to more than 240,000 over the same span. Sydney's second ballot as a Major drew more than 123,000 applications, up 56% on its first.
Is Gen Z making marathons harder to get into?
That is Fortune's argument. In February it called the marathon Gen Z's new status symbol, the thing you train for and post about instead of buying a handbag. The demographics back it up. Sportico's analysis of the 2025 New York City Marathon found the largest age bracket in the field was 25 to 29, with nearly 11,000 finishers. Under-30 runners made up 24% of all finishers, up from 17% in 2022. The pipeline is full too: 73% of active Gen Z consumers belong to or use a gym, the highest share of any generation, per ABC Fitness.
None of this is a one-year spike. A record 59,226 people finished New York in 2025, the largest marathon ever run and the second consecutive record, per New York Road Runners.
What are the odds of winning a marathon ballot now?
Published acceptance rates have collapsed. London accepted 2.9% of ballot applicants for 2024, 2% for 2025, and roughly 1.3% for 2027. New York fell from 4% to 2.5% to about 1% across the last three lotteries. Even Sydney, the friendliest open ballot among the Majors, tightened from 44% to 33%.
Single-year odds also understate the wait. Most runners enter several years in a row, and the ballot simulator shows how long those rates compound into.
Which Marathon Major is easiest to get into?
By published acceptance, Sydney at about 33%, then Chicago around 25%, Berlin around 20%, and Tokyo near 10%. London and New York are the long shots at roughly 1%. Boston has no ballot at all, it is qualifier-only. Cape Town, the eighth Major from 2027, ran its first ballot in June 2026 and has not yet published odds. The Majors comparison keeps all eight side by side.
Will marathon ballots get easier?
Supply is growing: London goes to two days and 100,000 places for 2027, and New York keeps breaking its own finisher record. Demand is growing faster. London's growth is decelerating, from +45% to +35% to +18% a year, but a slower-growing record is still a record.
So treat rejection as the default and make your entries automatic. Free ballot alerts for every Major are the reason this site exists: you enter more races, and you never miss a window.
Sources: Fortune, Sportico, New York Road Runners