Why Do the Biggest Marathons Use a Lottery?

A marathon lottery exists because the number of people who want to start is many times larger than the number who safely can. London's 2027 ballot drew 1,338,544 applications for a field that grew to 100,000 only after that record; even at that expanded size, most applicants still miss. New York's 2026 drawing pulled in more than 240,000 applications for a race that accepts roughly 1% through the general draw. There is no queue long enough or fee high enough to fairly sort numbers that lopsided, so all three races fall back on a random draw.

Why not just let anyone register?

Because a marathon closes public roads for hours, and a city only grants a permit for a fixed number of runners its medical, water-station, and traffic-management plans can actually support. That cap does not move with demand. London's field grew to 100,000 for 2027 specifically because organizers restructured the event into a two-day Double to accommodate more of the record demand, and even that expansion did not come close to matching 1.3 million applicants. Tokyo caps its field at 40,000 and still accepts only around 10% of general entrants. The road, not the appetite for the race, sets the ceiling.

Why a lottery instead of first-come, first-served?

A pure first-come queue rewards whoever has the fastest internet connection and the most free time at the exact moment registration opens, not who actually wants to run most. It also crashes servers and shuts out anyone in a worse time zone or a slower queue. A random draw removes that advantage entirely: every application submitted within the window has an equal chance, regardless of when it was filed. That is the whole mechanism in Tokyo's general-entry lottery, London's public ballot, and New York's drawing.

Why not just raise the price until demand matches supply?

That would work mathematically, but it would also turn a mass-participation event into one only wealthy applicants could enter, which cuts against what all three races say they are trying to be. Each Major does sell a small number of guaranteed non-lottery routes, charity fundraising, Good For Age standards, tour operator packages, but those exist alongside the ballot as alternatives, not replacements for it. The random draw stays the default because it is the only allocation method that does not favor speed, money, or connections over everyone else's equal shot.

Does a bigger field mean better odds?

Not proportionally. London's field roughly doubled for the 2027 Double, but applications climbed too, so the ballot got only modestly easier, not close to guaranteed. Runners can check current odds for any of the eight Majors, including how a field-size change actually moves the numbers, with the Marathon Ballot Simulator. Full mechanics for each race's own draw are in How Marathon Ballots Actually Work.

Sources: London Marathon Events: record 1.3 million applications for 2027 TCS London Marathon, Tokyo Marathon: Participants, New York Road Runners: TCS New York City Marathon