A lottery simulator for the World Marathon Majors: Berlin, London, Boston, Tokyo, Chicago, New York and Sydney. Cape Town joins once its first odds are published.
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A free Monte Carlo tool that models how many years of ballot entries it would take to win a bib in the Abbott World Marathon Majors. Built on the latest published odds for each race. Cape Town, the new 8th Major, will be added once its first acceptance rate is published.
Pick a Major, enter your name, and the simulator runs your entry through up to 40 future ballots. Starting odds match each race's latest published draw, then decay 8 to 17% per year as applications grow.
Published rates: Tokyo ~10%, London ~1.4%, NYC ~1.0%. Sydney, Chicago and Berlin do not publish an acceptance rate, so the simulator uses estimates for them. Boston is qualifier-only with no random ballot.
Probably Sydney, the newest Major (added 2025), though it publishes no rate. It drew 123,000+ ballot entries in 2026 for a field targeting 40,000 finishers, which caps its odds at about one in three. Chicago and Berlin publish no rate either.
With odds near 1.4% and applications still climbing, the simulator typically returns 10 to 18 years. Some users win in year one. Many are still waiting in the 2030s. The simulator gives you your personal probability curve.
Applications grow faster than field sizes. London jumped from 1.13M to 1.34M applications in one year. The simulator decays starting odds 8 to 17% per year to reflect that real-world trend.
Starting odds match each race's most recently published ballot. Decay rates are matched to five-year application growth. It cannot predict any single draw, but the median across thousands of runs converges on historical entry data.
Yes. After running the simulation you can download a 1080x1920 PNG with your name, race, win year, and odds curve. Sized for Instagram Stories, Strava, and Threads.