On published ballot odds, Sydney is the most open of the Majors at roughly 32.5%, followed by Chicago at about 25% and Berlin at about 20%. Tokyo sits near 10%. London and New York are the hardest, at roughly 1.3% and 1% respectively. Boston is not a ballot at all: it is qualifier-only, so a qualifying time replaces the draw entirely.
By total ascent in Marathon Ballot's elevation data, Chicago is the flattest of the Majors at about 16 metres of climbing, followed by Berlin at 51 metres and Tokyo at 55 metres. Sydney is by far the hilliest at about 313 metres. Cape Town's elevation figures are not yet published in the same form, so it is shown without an elevation score.
It depends which constraint binds hardest. If getting in at all is the problem, the open-ballot races score best. If you want the flattest course for a personal best, Chicago and Berlin lead. If cool weather matters most, Tokyo has run coldest of the Majors in recent editions. This quiz weights whichever of those three you pick as the priority.
Each Major is scored on three published figures held on this site: its ballot acceptance rate, its total course ascent and its recent race-day temperatures. The priority you choose is weighted eight times as heavily as the other two, so it decides the winner and the remaining figures break ties. Your entry route filters out races that route cannot use, and your timing answer filters by each race's actual date. Where a figure is unpublished, the race is shown in the ranking with that noted rather than given an invented number.
Yes. All eight confirmed Abbott World Marathon Majors are included, with Cape Town joining at its 2027 edition. Shanghai is excluded because it is a candidate race under evaluation and not a Major. Cape Town has not yet published a ballot acceptance rate or elevation profile, so it is scored only on what is published.