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[ Wire ] · Dispatch · Jul 29

Tokyo Marathon Ballot Odds: 20 Years of Numbers

The Tokyo Marathon Foundation publishes a general ballot acceptance rate of roughly 10%. The last edition for which it released raw numbers, 2019, drew 330,271 applications for 27,370 ballot places, an 8.3% acceptance rate. Tokyo is the hardest Major to enter by lottery outside of London.

What are the real Tokyo Marathon ballot odds?

Published rates, straight from the Foundation's own past-edition pages:

  • 2007, first edition: 77,521 applications, 26,058 places, 33.6%
  • 2012: 282,824 applications, 29,400 places, 10.4%
  • 2015: 304,825 applications, 28,400 places, 9.3%
  • 2017: 321,459 applications, 26,370 places, 8.2%
  • 2019: 330,271 applications, 27,370 places, 8.3%

Between 2012 and 2019 applications rose 17% while ballot places fell 7%. That squeeze, not a single bad year, is what moved Tokyo from a one in ten race to a one in twelve race.

Why does Tokyo still say 10%?

Because the Foundation has not published raw application counts since the 2019 edition. The roughly 10% figure it quotes now covers general acceptance across the entry categories it runs. It is the friendliest honest reading of the number, and it is the one a runner planning an application should treat as a ceiling rather than a floor.

Is a bigger field improving the odds?

Not by much. The field has grown from 25,102 finishers in 2007 to a preliminary 38,773 starters in 2026, and the 2027 edition expands to 40,000. But field growth has been absorbed by charity places, the semi-elite route, tour operators and Abbott guaranteed entries as fast as it arrives. The 2027 race alone sets aside 5,000 charity runner spots. Year-by-year field sizes and results are on the Tokyo Marathon page, with the most recent cycle at 2026 ballot results.

How many years does it take to get in?

At a 10% annual chance, four consecutive applications give roughly a 34% cumulative chance, and seven give about 52%. At 8.3% those numbers drop to 29% and 46%. Neither is a plan on its own, which is why most overseas runners stack the lottery with a second route. The ballot simulator runs those compounding odds for any number of attempts.

What improves your chances?

Entering every year rather than every other year, holding a ONE TOKYO GLOBAL membership for the separate member draw, and checking whether a marathon personal best clears the semi-elite standard, which bypasses the lottery entirely. Anyone unsure can test a time against the standards in the qualification checker.

Free alerts cover the Tokyo ballot window every year, which is the cheapest way to make sure the compounding math actually gets a chance to work.

Sources: Tokyo Marathon Foundation: past editions, Tokyo Marathon Foundation: Entry Schedule

Sources Tokyo Marathon Foundation Application counts, ballot places awarded and published acceptance rates for 2007 to 2019 taken from the Tokyo Marathon Foundation's own past-edition pages at marathon.tokyo/en/about/past/<year>. Recent editions use the Foundation's published rate; raw counts have not been released since 2019.