Tokyo vs Berlin: Which Fast Major Can You Actually Get Into?
Tokyo and Berlin are the two fastest, flattest courses among the Marathon Majors, and they could not treat the ballot question more differently. Tokyo publishes a roughly 10% acceptance rate for a lottery that opens August 14, 2026 for the March 7, 2027 race. Berlin publishes a roughly 20% acceptance rate, the second best of any Major after Chicago's roughly 25%, for a lottery that closed months ago and will not reopen until later this year.
Which has better ballot odds?
Berlin, by a clear margin. SCC Events states a roughly 20% acceptance rate every year, without ever publishing how many people applied. Tokyo says roughly 10%, but the Tokyo Marathon Foundation last released raw numbers for 2019, when 330,271 applications chased 27,370 places, an actual 8.3% rate. Applications rose 17% between 2012 and 2019 while ballot places fell 7%, which is the squeeze that pushed Tokyo's real number below its headline one. Full sourcing for both is on the Tokyo ballot odds page and Berlin ballot odds page.
Which lottery is open right now?
Tokyo's, as of this post. The 2027 Tokyo Marathon General Entry lottery opens 11:00 a.m. JST on August 14, 2026 and closes August 28, with results notified September 18. Berlin's 2026 race lottery already closed, it ran September 25 to November 6, 2025 with results emailed November 27, 2025, for the September 27, 2026 race. Berlin's next lottery, admitting the 2027 race, is expected to open around September or October 2026, roughly when the 2026 field is toeing the start line.
Which is cheaper to enter?
Neither charges you just to apply, which is the bigger point than either number. Tokyo's overseas entry fee is USD 230, and Berlin's is €205. Both are charged only if the lottery selects you, unlike London, which bills every applicant regardless of outcome. An unsuccessful entry at either Tokyo or Berlin costs nothing beyond the time spent on the form.
Which has the easier guaranteed route in?
Berlin, and it is not close. Berlin's Good for Age standard, 2:45 for men and 3:10 for women in the 18 to 34 band, guarantees entry outside the lottery and eases with age, the loosest GFA bar of any Major that offers one. Tokyo's equivalent bypass is a semi-elite standard of 2:21 for men and 2:52 for women, times that put a runner within reach of national-class fields, not a club-level guaranteed entry the way Berlin's is. A fast amateur who clears Berlin's GFA time comfortably will not come close to Tokyo's semi-elite bar.
What about charity entry?
Both races sell a charity bypass, in different currencies and different structures. Berlin's charity partners ask €1,500 and up, the lowest floor of any Major. Tokyo's RUN with HEART program starts around JPY 100,000 and runs to JPY 350,000 depending on the partner charity. Comparing the two numbers directly would mean inventing an exchange rate this site does not publish, so take each as its own currency's floor rather than a head to head ranking.
Which course is faster?
Berlin has the résumé. It is the course behind nine men's marathon world records since 2003, including every men's world record since 2013, finishing under the Brandenburg Gate. Tokyo is also engineered for speed, a point to point route from Shinjuku to Tokyo Station that has hosted Eliud Kipchoge's Asian record pursuit, but the world record history belongs to Berlin.
Which should you target first?
If your personal best clears Berlin's Good for Age time, that route is close to a sure thing and costs nothing unless you are accepted, making it the more efficient use of a fast qualifying time. If it does not, Berlin's roughly 20% lottery still beats Tokyo's roughly 10% for the same random-draw effort, and its window will not fall due for months. Tokyo's case is timing and prestige, the only Major in Asia, a lottery that is open now, and a course fast enough to chase a personal best on. The Marathon Ballot Simulator models how each race's odds compound across repeat entries, and every Major ranked by odds puts both numbers next to the rest of the field. Free alerts cover both the Tokyo window closing August 28 and Berlin's next opening whenever it is confirmed.
Sources: Tokyo Marathon Foundation: Entry Schedule, BMW Berlin Marathon: Lottery, BMW Berlin Marathon: Registration information