Which Marathon Major Should Be Your First?

Chicago is the best first Major for most runners: a flat, fast course, no qualifying time, and roughly 25% ballot odds, the best combination of accessibility and course-friendliness among the Majors open to a general ballot. Sydney's odds are better on paper, around 32.5%, but its rolling course through Kings Cross is a harder debut than a flat loop. London is the most iconic and the flattest of the four, but its ballot accepts only about 1.3% of applicants, making it a poor bet for a first attempt.

Which Major has the best odds for a first-timer?

Sydney leads, with roughly 32.5% of the 2026 ballot's 123,000 applicants accepted, an official published rate and the highest among the eight Majors. Berlin follows at a published roughly 20%. Chicago's roughly 25% is not an official rate. Chicago Event Management does not publish one; the figure is this site's own estimate from the roughly 55,000-person field against the record 200,000-plus applicants for 2026. London trails badly at roughly 1.3%, driven down by a record 1,338,544 applications for the 2027 race. Boston and Tokyo are excluded from this comparison entirely: Boston requires a qualifying time rather than a ballot, and Tokyo and New York's ballots accept only a few percent of entries, closer to London's odds than to Sydney's or Chicago's. Full figures for each race sit on their own ballot history pages, linked below.

Which Major has the easiest course for a first marathon?

Berlin, unambiguously. Its course is the flattest of the eight Majors and the one most associated with world records, an advantage for pacing rather than chasing a time on debut. London's loop from Greenwich to The Mall is also flat. Chicago's loop through 29 neighborhoods is flat and fast too, with a Grant Park start and finish that keeps logistics simple for a first-timer traveling alone. Sydney is the outlier: a point-to-point course from Milsons Point to the Opera House with a rolling climb through Kings Cross, more demanding than the other three.

What about weather?

Berlin and Chicago both fall in late September and early October, with race-day temperatures typically in the 5 to 20°C range, cool enough to avoid heat stress without the risk of extreme cold. London runs in April in milder 8 to 14°C conditions. Sydney sits in late August, cool at 10 to 18°C. None of the four carries a significant heat risk in a normal year, though Berlin's own 2025 edition ran unusually warm.

Which Major should you actually pick?

For odds alone, Sydney. For a flat course alone, Berlin. For the best balance of both, plus a large, well-supported American field and no qualifying time, Chicago. London is worth entering the ballot for regardless, since it costs nothing to try, but it should not be a first-timer's only plan given the odds. Anyone weighing these four against each other can model actual odds for a chosen entry year with the Marathon Ballot Simulator, and check each race's own page for full course, weather, and entry details: London, Berlin, Chicago, and Sydney.

Sources: Abbott World Marathon Majors, London 2027 ballot results, Chicago 2026 ballot results, Sydney 2026 ballot results