News
Jul 30 London Marathon Ballot Odds: The Real Math Behind 1.3% Jul 29 Tokyo Marathon 2027 Lottery Opens August 14 Jul 29 Tokyo Marathon Ballot Odds: 20 Years of Numbers Jul 29 Tokyo Marathon Entry Fee 2027: What It Costs Jul 29 Tokyo Marathon Qualifying Times: 2:22 and 2:50 Jul 29 ONE TOKYO GLOBAL: A Second Route Into Tokyo Jul 29 Tokyo Marathon Charity Entry: 5,000 Places, One Window Jul 29 Tokyo Marathon 2027 Sets a Record $170,000 Prize Jul 29 Your Real Odds at All 8 Marathon Majors, Ranked Jul 29 Tokyo Marathon 2026 Results: Takele and Kosgei Win
[ Wire ] · Dispatch · Jul 30

London Marathon Ballot Odds: The Real Math Behind 1.3%

The TCS London Marathon public ballot accepted roughly 2% of applicants in 2025, the last year London Marathon Events published an official rate. Applications have since climbed so fast that the 2027 draw, a record 1,338,544 entries, works out to roughly 1.3% against the site's own estimate of about 18,000 ballot bibs, even though organizers stopped publishing a rate at all.

What are the current odds of getting into the London Marathon ballot?

Roughly 1.3%. The 2027 TCS London Marathon ballot drew 1,338,544 applications, competing for an estimated 18,000 ballot places out of a 100,000-runner field that also includes Good for Age, Championship entries, club places, charity, and elite athletes. London Marathon Events did not publish an official acceptance rate or bib allocation for the 2027 draw, only the raw application count, so 1.3% is this site's own estimate rather than an organizer-published figure. Full sourcing is on the 2027 London ballot results page.

How is that percentage actually calculated?

Divide ballot places by applications. In 2025, the last year the math is fully official, London Marathon Events allocated roughly 17,000 places through the public ballot against 840,318 applications, a published rate of about 2%. For 2026, applications jumped 35% to 1,133,813 while the ballot allocation held near 17,000, pushing the rate down to about 1.5% even though organizers did not publish that figure directly. For 2027, applications rose another 18% to 1,338,544. London Marathon Events has not said how many ballot places it set aside, so the roughly 1.3% figure comes from this site dividing the record application count by the same 17,000 to 18,000 range organizers have allocated in recent cycles, not from an official release.

Why do the odds keep getting worse?

Applications are compounding faster than the field grows. The ballot has set a world record for four straight years running, up 35% in 2026 and 18% in 2027, while the roughly 17,000 to 18,000 ballot places have stayed nearly flat. The 2027 race did expand to a record 100,000 total participants by running as a one-off two-day Double across Saturday 24 and Sunday 25 April 2027, but that extra capacity went mostly to the additional race day's logistics, not a proportional jump in ballot bibs. Every other entry route, Good for Age, Championship qualifiers, club places, and charity, draws from the same fixed field, so a bigger field does not translate into much better ballot math for most applicants.

Does the "double your chances" option help?

It improves an individual applicant's odds, but it does not change the underlying math above. UK entrants can pay a reduced £49.99 for a second, independent draw if the first one misses, roughly doubling their personal probability of success across two chances rather than one. Applicants unsuccessful in both draws receive a complimentary hydration vest as a consolation. The base entry fee is £79.99 for UK runners and £225 for international runners, which includes a carbon offset.

Are there better odds outside the ballot?

Yes, for runners who qualify. A verified fast time earns Good for Age entry at a far higher acceptance rate than the ballot, England Athletics affiliation opens Championship entry for elite club runners, and charity places guarantee a bib for a fundraising minimum instead of a random draw. None of those routes depend on the 1.3% ballot math above. The how to get into the London Marathon guide walks through every route in full, and the Marathon Ballot Simulator models how repeated ballot entries compound over multiple years at London's current odds.

What if I already missed out on 2027?

The 1.3% figure means most applicants miss most years, including strong candidates for Good for Age. Didn't get into London? covers charity places, deferrals, and the timeline to the 2028 ballot, expected to open in late April 2027.

Sources: London Marathon Events: record 1.33 million applications for the 2027 race, London 2027 ballot results, London 2026 ballot results, London 2025 ballot results

Sources London Marathon Events 2027 application total and breakdown from londonmarathonevents.co.uk (accessed July 30, 2026); prior-year application, spots, and published-rate figures from this site's own London ballot history pages, which carry their own sources