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Marathon Lottery Odds Calculator

Tick the Majors you plan to enter for your combined chance of at least one acceptance, total entry fees at risk, and any date clashes, assuming each ballot draws independently.

FAQ

What are the odds of getting into a marathon major?+

Published ballot odds vary widely: Sydney ~33%, Chicago ~25%, Berlin ~20%, Tokyo ~10%, London ~1.3%, New York City ~1%. Boston has no lottery, it is qualifier-only. Cape Town's first ballot odds have not been published yet.

Can I enter multiple marathon ballots at once?+

Yes. Each Major runs its own ballot on its own schedule, so there is nothing stopping you entering several in the same year. This calculator adds up your combined chance of at least one acceptance across every ballot you tick.

How much does it cost if I get into every marathon ballot?+

Entry fees are only charged if you are drawn, and they run in each race's own currency: for example Tokyo charges in yen, London and Berlin in pounds and euros, Chicago and New York in US dollars, Sydney in Australian dollars. The calculator totals your at-risk fees grouped by currency for the ballots you tick, since converting across currencies would need an assumed exchange rate.

Does this calculator assume marathon ballots are independent of each other?+

Yes, and that is a simplification, not a guarantee. Each Major draws its ballot from its own applicant pool with no published link between results, so treating them as statistically independent is the standard way to combine odds. It cannot capture any real-world correlation, such as ballots that skew toward the same pool of serious repeat applicants.

Do marathon ballot entry windows ever overlap?+

Yes. Several Majors open and close their ballots within weeks of each other, and some draw results in the same week. The calculator flags any overlap or same-week draw date between the ballots you tick, using each race's currently published window.

Why isn't the Boston Marathon in this calculator?+

Boston is the only Abbott World Marathon Major that is qualifier-only, there is no random ballot or lottery to model. Its non-qualifying route is a charity bib with a fundraising minimum, a guaranteed path rather than a probability.