London vs Berlin: Ballot Odds, Costs, and Courses Compared

London and Berlin sit at opposite ends of the same problem: getting a random-draw bib at a Major. London's 2027 ballot pulled a record 1,338,544 applications and London Marathon Events has not published an acceptance rate for that draw, only the raw entry count. Berlin does the reverse, publishing a roughly 20% acceptance rate every year while never releasing how many people actually applied. Neither approach gives you the full picture, but knowing which half is missing changes how you plan for each.

Which has better ballot odds?

Berlin, by a wide margin. SCC Events states a roughly 20% acceptance rate for the Berlin lottery, the second-best published number among the Majors after Chicago's roughly 25%. London does not publish an equivalent figure. Dividing the site's own tracked ballot allocation against the record 1,338,544 applications for 2027 puts London near 1.3%, an estimate rather than an organizer-confirmed rate. Full sourcing for both is on the London 2027 ballot results and Berlin ballot history pages.

Which is cheaper to enter?

Depends on the outcome. London's ballot fee, £79.99 for UK runners and £275 for international runners, is charged at application regardless of whether you're drawn. Berlin's €205 fee is charged only if you're selected, so an unsuccessful Berlin entry costs nothing beyond the time spent applying. Across a currency, London and Berlin land in a similar band per entry, but the "charged either way" mechanic makes repeat London applications a real cost, not just a chance.

Which has the easier guaranteed route in?

Berlin, clearly. Berlin's Good for Age standards, 2:45 for men and 3:10 for women in the 18 to 34 band, guarantee entry outside the lottery with no published cap, the loosest GFA bar of any Major that offers one. London's equivalent, sub-2:52 for men and sub-3:38 for women in the 18 to 39 band, is capped at roughly 6,000 places split by gender, so clearing the time doesn't guarantee a bib if more qualifiers apply than there is room for. Full mechanics are in London Marathon Good For Age, explained.

Which has the cheaper charity route?

Berlin. Its charity minimum starts around €1,500, the lowest floor of any Major. London's official charity partners typically ask £2,000 to £3,000. Both routes guarantee a bib once the fundraising minimum is met, independent of the ballot result.

Which course is faster?

Berlin. It is the flattest of the eight Majors and the course behind every men's marathon world record since 2013, nine in total since 2003, finishing under the Brandenburg Gate. London is also flat by most marathon standards, a loop from Greenwich to The Mall with well under 100 meters of total climbing, but it has never produced a men's world record the way Berlin has.

Which should you target first?

If you already clear Berlin's Good for Age time, that route is close to a sure thing and costs nothing unless you're accepted. If you don't, Berlin's ~20% lottery still beats London's ~1.3% by a wide margin for the same random-draw effort. London's case is volume and prestige: more total ballot spots in absolute terms and a bigger field overall, but far worse odds per entry. The Marathon Ballot Simulator models how each race's odds compound if you plan to keep entering, and every Major ranked by odds puts both numbers next to the rest of the field.

Sources: London Marathon Events: enter the ballot, London Marathon Events: record 1.33 million applications, BMW Berlin Marathon: lottery, BMW Berlin Marathon: registration information