London vs Berlin: Ballot Odds, Costs, and Courses Compared

London and Berlin sit at opposite ends of the same problem: getting a random-draw bib at a Major. London's 2027 ballot pulled a record 1,338,544 applications and London Marathon Events has not published an acceptance rate for that draw, only the raw entry count. Berlin publishes neither an applicant count nor an acceptance rate; its organizer says only that the lottery gives everyone an equal chance. So the comparison rests on mechanics, fees and fallback routes more than on a clean odds number.

Which has better ballot odds?

Nobody can say precisely, because neither organizer publishes a current rate. SCC Events gives no applicant count or acceptance rate for Berlin. Dividing the site's own tracked ballot allocation against the record 1,338,544 applications for 2027 puts London near 1.3%, an estimate rather than an organizer-confirmed rate, and the lowest of the two on any reasonable reading of London's record demand. Full sourcing for both is on the London 2027 ballot results and Berlin ballot history pages.

Which is cheaper to enter?

Depends on the outcome. London's ballot fee, £79.99 for UK runners and £275 for international runners, is charged at application regardless of whether you're drawn. Berlin's €215 fee (2027) is charged only if you're selected, so an unsuccessful Berlin entry costs nothing beyond the time spent applying. Across a currency, London and Berlin land in a similar band per entry, but the "charged either way" mechanic makes repeat London applications a real cost, not just a chance.

Which has the easier time-based route?

Neither guarantees a bib, so compare the standards and the rules. Berlin's fast-runner standards for 2027 are 2:45 for men and 3:10 for women aged 18 to 44, and the organizer states that registering as a fast runner does not guarantee a spot. London's Good For Age, open only to UK residents, asks sub-2:52 for men and sub-3:38 for women in the 18 to 39 band and is capped at roughly 6,000 places, fastest first, so clearing the time doesn't guarantee a bib either. Berlin's women's standard is slower and its route is open to any nationality, so more runners can use it, but it is still not a sure thing. Full mechanics are in London Marathon Good For Age, explained.

How do the charity routes compare?

Both races run charity partner programs, and each partner charity sets its own fundraising minimum, so compare the specific charities you would run for. London's official charity partners typically ask £2,000 to £3,000. Both routes give a bib once the fundraising commitment is accepted, independent of the ballot result.

Which course is faster?

Berlin. It is the flattest of the eight Majors and the course behind every men's marathon world record since 2013, nine in total since 2003, finishing under the Brandenburg Gate. London is also flat by most marathon standards, a loop from Greenwich to The Mall with well under 100 meters of total climbing, but it has never produced a men's world record the way Berlin has.

Which should you target first?

If you already clear Berlin's fast-runner time, register that way before November 12, 2026: it is not a guarantee, but it costs nothing unless you are accepted. If you don't, Berlin's lottery also costs nothing unless you are drawn, while London bills every applicant. Berlin's odds are unpublished, but London's record 1.34 million applications make its draw the long shot. London's case is volume and prestige: more total ballot spots in absolute terms and a bigger field overall, but far worse odds per entry. The Marathon Ballot Simulator models how each race's odds compound if you plan to keep entering, and every Major ranked by odds puts both numbers next to the rest of the field.

Sources: London Marathon Events: enter the ballot, London Marathon Events: record 1.33 million applications, GENERALI BERLIN-MARATHON: Run registration