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[ Wire ] · Dispatch · Aug 07

Sydney Marathon Ballot Odds: Best in the Majors

Sydney's 2026 ballot accepted roughly 32.5% of applicants, still the best published odds of any Abbott World Marathon Major, ahead of Chicago's 25%, Berlin's 20%, Tokyo's 10%, and New York's 1%. It is also down sharply from the 44.3% Sydney published for its first Major-status ballot in 2025, a 27% year-over-year drop, as applications jumped 56% to more than 123,000 for a 40,000-place field. The race itself runs August 30, 2026, three weeks from today.

What are the current Sydney Marathon ballot odds?

Roughly 32.5%, TCS Sydney Marathon's own published acceptance rate for the 2026 ballot. That ballot opened September 24, 2025 and closed October 17, 2025, with results emailed October 29, 2025. Applications reached 123,000-plus against 40,000 total places, the highest volume in the event's history. The 2026 Sydney ballot results page carries the full published breakdown.

Why did the odds get worse in one year?

Demand grew faster than the field. Sydney's first ballot as an official Major, for the 2025 race, drew 79,000 applications for 34,141 places and accepted 44.3%. The 2026 ballot pulled 123,000-plus applications, a 56% jump, against a field that grew to 40,000, a much smaller increase. More applicants chasing a field that barely grew is the entire story behind the drop from 44.3% to 32.5%.

Is Sydney still the easiest Major ballot to win?

Yes, by a wide margin. Even after the drop, Sydney's 32.5% is still roughly 8 points ahead of Chicago, the next best, and more than 30 points ahead of New York's 1%. Sydney's newer status as a Major, its Southern Hemisphere timing that avoids clashing with the northern autumn Majors, and its still-growing but not yet saturated applicant pool all help keep it the most winnable ballot in the series, at least for now.

Will the odds keep falling?

The trend says probably. Every Sydney ballot so far has drawn more applicants than the one before it, and the 2025-to-2026 jump was the biggest single-year increase of any Major covered on this site. If applications keep compounding at anywhere near 56% a year against a field that grows more slowly, Sydney's odds edge over Chicago and Berlin will keep narrowing. Nothing is confirmed yet for the 2027 ballot; the window is expected around September to October 2026 but TCS Sydney Marathon has not published dates.

What if the Sydney ballot says no?

Sydney does not currently publish a guaranteed time-qualifier or Good for Age route the way Berlin, Chicago, and Boston do, so a lottery rejection means waiting for the next window or looking at a charity partner place. Every Major ranked by odds shows where Sydney sits against the other seven, and the Marathon Ballot Simulator models how a 32.5% rate compounds if you plan to keep entering in future cycles.

The 2026 race itself is now three weeks out. Free Sydney ballot alerts will cover the 2027 window the moment TCS Sydney Marathon confirms it.

Sources: TCS Sydney Marathon, Sydney 2026 ballot results

Sources TCS Sydney Marathon 2026 and 2025 ballot figures (123,000+ and 79,000 applications, 32.5% and 44.3% published acceptance rates) from this site's Sydney ballot history, independently sourced to TCS Sydney Marathon's own results communications (accessed August 7, 2026).