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Aug 09 Ballot, Lottery, Drawing: What Each Major Calls It Aug 09 Chicago vs New York: The Two American Majors Compared Aug 09 When Is Each Marathon Major? The Full Race-Day Calendar Aug 08 You Got In. Now What? The First Month After a Ballot Win Aug 08 How Marathon Ballots Actually Work Aug 08 Boston vs London: The Two Hardest Bibs in the Majors Aug 07 Sydney Marathon Ballot Odds: Best in the Majors Aug 07 Chicago Marathon Lottery Odds: Roughly 1 in 4 Aug 07 Berlin Marathon Lottery Odds, Explained Aug 06 When Does the Marathon Ballot Open? The Annual Pattern
[ Wire ] · Dispatch · Aug 07

Chicago Marathon Lottery Odds: Roughly 1 in 4

The Bank of America Chicago Marathon lottery accepts roughly 25% of applicants, Chicago Event Management's own published estimate and the best odds of any legacy Major, ahead of Berlin's 20%, Tokyo's 10%, and New York's 1%. That number has held roughly steady even as demand has not: applications ran 86,000 in 2023, 123,000 in 2024, 160,000 in 2025, and more than 200,000 for the 2026 race, against a field CEM frames at roughly 55,000 total places.

What are the actual Chicago Marathon lottery odds?

Roughly 25%, per Chicago Event Management. Unlike Berlin, Chicago doesn't publish one clean acceptance rate calculated from raw application and place counts, it states the odds directly as guidance for applicants. The 2026 lottery opened October 21, 2025 and closed November 18, 2025, with selection emails sent December 11, 2025, for the October 11, 2026 race. The 2026 Chicago ballot results carry the full year-by-year record.

Has demand for Chicago actually doubled?

More than doubled. The applicant pool went from 86,000 for the 2023 race to 200,000-plus for 2026, a 133% jump in three cycles, while the field size has stayed close to 52,000 to 55,000 across the same span. A quarter-odds lottery against a pool that size means roughly 150,000 people got turned away from the 2026 draw alone. Chicago Event Management has not said whether the published 25% figure will hold if applications keep climbing at this rate.

Why does Chicago publish better odds than Berlin or Tokyo?

Because Chicago states a number and the others either don't (Berlin, Cape Town) or publish a lower one (Tokyo's roughly 10%, holding flat for years). Whether "roughly 25%" reflects the exact math behind the 2026 draw or a rounder standing estimate isn't something CEM has clarified, but it is the figure the organizer puts in front of applicants, and it is the number this site and every other tracker uses.

Is there a way into Chicago that skips the lottery?

Yes. Time qualifiers get guaranteed entry at 2:50 for men and 3:20 for women in the 18 to 34 age band, easing for older runners. Charity partners offer bibs from a $1,750+ fundraising minimum. Both routes run on their own schedule and don't depend on the lottery result. The full guide to entering Chicago covers each route including international tour-operator packages.

What if the Chicago lottery says no?

Check whether a faster certified time gets you in on the time-qualifier route, since Chicago's standards are among the more attainable of the Majors, or look at a charity partner for the same race. The Marathon Ballot Simulator shows what a 25% single-year rate does to your odds if you plan to keep entering, and every Major ranked by odds puts Chicago's number against the other seven.

Chicago's next lottery is expected to open around October 2026 for the 2027 race; free Chicago ballot alerts cover the window the moment dates are confirmed.

Sources: Bank of America Chicago Marathon: Apply, Chicago 2026 ballot results

Sources Bank of America Chicago Marathon (Chicago Event Management) Odds figure from this site's Chicago race page (Chicago Event Management's own published estimate). Multi-year application totals (86,000 in 2023, 123,000 in 2024, 160,000 in 2025, 200,000+ in 2026) from this site's Chicago ballot history, each independently sourced to Chicago Event Management's own results announcements (accessed August 7, 2026).